Enes Kanter Projections

All Wolves fans know that with David Kahn, where there's draft rumor smoke, there's probably fire.  Since multiple sources have reported the Wolves are interested in Enes Kanter, I decided the other day to try to talk myself into the pick.  Since I'm not a professional scout, like many posters on Hoopus I really primarily on draft sites and quantitative data to get a feeling for prospects, and the oft-repeated problem with evaluating Kanter this way is that these sites have no data about his performance.

It turns out, however, that there ARE some data about Kanter's performance in competitive basketball games.  In particular, at fibaeurope.com, we can find 17 games and 524 minutes worth of data about Kanter's performance in the 2008 and 2009 European Men's under 18 championships.  His performance there was very good: Per 36 minutes, Kanter averaged about 22 points on 0.627 TS%, 18 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.5 blocks, 1 steal, 2 fouls and 3 turnovers.  Considering the level of competition, what do these numbers mean, and do they have any relevance to the NBA?

First: Kanter wasn't just good in these 17 games, he was dominant.  His overall raw production is better than any other player in the online history of the tournament - fibaeurope has box score stats for the top division going back to 1996 and no player (out of 1,874) has posted a higher Win Scores / minute than Kanter did in 2008.  The next closest player to Kanter's 25.4 WS/40 that year was Valanciunas in 2009 and 2010, with 23.8 and and 24.2, respectively; and besides Kanter's 20.6 in 2009, only two other players have posted a WS/40 above 20 (E. Lorbek and M. Raduljica, with 21.9 and 20.5, respectively).  That's pretty dominant.

Fine, you say, but any player who can play in the NBA should dominate against this level of competition.  Well, it turns out that 15 players 6'9" or taller did play in the tournament (during the period that stats are available) and later log minutes in the NBA: Alexis Ajinca, Andris Biedrins, Omri Casspi, Semih Erden, Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol, Victor Khryapa, Andrei Kirilenko, Kosta Koufos, Maciej Lampe, Ian Mahinmi, Dirk Nowitzki, Johan Petro, Darius Songaila, and Ronnie Turiaf.   None of them dominated the way Kanter did.  But more importantly, this gives us the opportunity to see if we can learn something about Kanter's likely NBA performance.

Forecasting Kanter's NBA Stats

Using the data from FIBA and BB-ref career per 36 averages for each of the 15 players above, I produced the following prediction for Kanter's TS% and Per 36 numbers:

TS%	PTS/36	REB/36	STL/36	BLK/36	AST/36	TOV/36	PF/36
0.576	16.8	10.1	1.2	1.6	1.4	2.4	3.8

Scoring - True Shooting Percentage and Points

Here's a plot of each player's TS% in the under-18 championships versus the players TS% in the NBA.  Two "outliers" were removed: Erden, whose TS% increased dramatically (from 0.44 to 0.59) due to a drastic reduction in usage; and Lampe, who had the most extreme drop in TS% in the data set (from 0.54 to 0.44) for no reason that I could see.

The best-fit line (shown in the image) has an r^2 of about 0.4, but a p-value of 0.04, so U18 TS% is statistically significant but only explains about 40% of the variation in NBA TS% among this sample.  In any case, if you plug in Kanter's 0.627 TS% to the linear model found by regression, you get a predicted NBA TS% of 0.576.

The regression for points has an even worse r^2:

I think the relatively low r^2 in both of these models can be explained primarily by variation in usage: most, but not all, of these players had high usage in the U18 tournament but they had a wider range of usage in the NBA. Most of the points above the best-fit line represent players with consistent usage between the two leagues, while it is more of a mixed bag below the best-fit line. Since I would expect Kanter to have high usage in the NBA (due to being drafted early) I think the model gives a reasonable prediction for his TS% and scoring.

Rebounds 

Kanter's 18 Rebounds per 36 minutes is off the charts both among the players in the NBA sample and all players with at least 40 minutes in the U18 tournament since 1996 - the next highest is Valanciunas with 15.  So the model may be underpredicting his rebounds/36 at 10.1.  (This model excludes one outlier, Biedrins, who somehow saw his rebounds/36 increase by 50% - from 8 to 12 - between the U18 tournament and the NBA, despite playing his first season in the NBA only a few months after playing in the tournament)

Assists, Steals,  and Blocks

Several of the older players in the sample appeared to have no blocks data (or just had really bad luck collecting no blocks in 100-200 minutes across 7-9 games) but otherwise these are pretty straightforward translations with pretty good r^2 values:

To show better detail, I truncated one point from the Steals plot: AK47 is way off to the right at 5.4 steals/36 in U18 play. (His NBA STL/36 of 1.6 almost perfectly fits the model)

Kanter's numbers are right  around the median for these stats: they don't look great or terrible.  (Although given his high usage the AST/36 numbers are a little low.  He might be kind of a black hole)

Turnovers and Fouls

Linear models for TOV/36 and PF/36 had a low r^2, mostly because there does not seem to be much variation between the players in the sample at the NBA level: they all had between 1.6 and 2.4 TO/36 (the r^2 for the "best fit" line here was 0.02) so to be safe I went with the maximum value among the NBA players.  The model for PF/36 looks like this:

Like TS%, turnovers and, to a lesser extend fouls, will depend on usage.  Since Kanter already had a high usage rate in the U18 tournaments and we would expect him to have a high NBA usage rate based on being picked early in the lottery, his PF/36 may slightly exceed the 3.8 predicted by the model.

Exploring Sample Size

While 500+ minutes and 17 games is not exactly a small sample, it's not huge either; and 15 players are a pretty small set to build a translation model from.  In order to estimate the potential for error in the model due to sample size, I used resampling ("the bootstrap") to compute confidence intervals.  The 10th percentile of predictions for each stat came out like this:

TS%	PTS/36	REB/36	STL/36	BLK/36	AST/36	TOV/36	PF/36
0.530	13.5	9.2	0.8	1.3	1.4	2.4	3.9

What does it mean?

In resampling, the 10th percentile of predicted WP48 for Kanter was 0.14 - so roughly there is a 90% chance of producing a higher prediction, depending on randomness in the sample. That is a very good center, similar by Berri's metrics to players like Al Jefferson (WP48 of 0.127) and Elton Brand (0.146).  Especially given Kanter's dominance on the boards, I think he is likely to produce along the lines of these two players, and that is reasonable, if not exciting, production for a non-superstar pick.  I'm not sure if Kanter is a good fit for the wolves, especially because of rumors of his defensive inadequacy, but he seems like a good value generally.

Of course, these data are old.  More recent observations of Kanter seem to have been mixed, which is why it is more important than usual to combine scouting data with stats in this case.  Finally, there is one cautionary tale in the U18 data set:

Player	TS%	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PF	TOV
Kanter	0.627	22.0	18.2	1.1	1.2	1.7	2.2	3.1
Koufos	0.541	27.4	13.4	0.4	1.4	3.6	1.7	1.9

 

Enes Kanter Projections

by hopps on Jun 8, 2011 4:12 AM CDT

canishoopus.com

Cavaliers Should Be Watching What Minnesota Does With #2 Pick

Predicting what teams will do in the draft is hard enough on its own merits. When it comes to trying to guess what a mercurial and enigmatic GM like David Kahn of the Minnesota Timberwolves will do in a draft makes things even more difficult.

Yet, if we are to give any consideration to what the Cleveland Cavaliers should do with the #4 pick in the draft, we must try to ascertain which players will still be there when they are back on the clock. When it comes to the Timberwolves, the general consensus seems to be that they will take Derrick Williams with the 2nd pick, leaving the Utah Jazz to take Brandon Knight at #3 and giving the Cavaliers their pick of foreign prospects at #4.

I’m just not sure that’s how it will play out, though. The Timberwolves have shown that they don’t tend to draft according to need and are unafraid to stockpile players at the same position. Their history with PGs is well documented, but if you look at the 3 and 4 positions on their team, they already have a bunch of similar players who could or should be playing the same position. Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, Anthony Randolph, and Martell Webster are all under contract at least through the next season. So perhaps they will still take Derrick Williams, the other consensus top 2 player in this draft. That’s the safe move.

When it comes to center, though, they only have Darko Milicic and Nikola Pekovic. Neither player is a difference maker and neither one should really be anything more than a bench player who gets spot minutes here and there. Pekovic has a little potential to grow as he had his moments last year in his rookie season. But is Pekovic a guy the Timberwolves are content to slot in as the center of their future? It’s possible, but I would think a guy like Enes Kanter could alter those plans.

In many ways, the thought of Kanter going to Minnesota just makes so much more sense than Derrick Williams. The only way Williams makes more sense is if their team scouts are absolutely certain that Williams will be a much better NBA player than Kanter. Otherwise, Kanter is a tantalizing prospect for any team that needs a center.

This is why I believe that the Timberwolves are going to take Enes Kanter with the #2 pick in the draft. Initially, this might excite some Cavs fans who dream of pairing Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams together, assuming that Utah will still take Brandon Knight. However, if Derrick Williams is still available for Utah at #3, that changes things for them.

With Al Jefferson and Mehmet Okur already there, selecting someone like Kanter or Jonas Valanciunas doesn’t make much sense, which is why most mock drafts have them taking Brandon Knight. However, if Williams is there at #3, it’s hard to see the Jazz passing on him. Andrei Kirilenko is a free agent and CJ Miles has a $3.7 million team option, and that’s about all the depth they have at SF. If they believe Williams can play the 3, then I believe they would select Williams over Knight in this scenario.

Now, if you buy into the Cavaliers’ love affair with Valanciunas, then no harm done, the Cavaliers can take him at #4. However, if you are of the belief that Kanter is the better prospect than Valanciunas, then this is a nightmare scenario.

I strongly belong to the 2nd party, which is why I am desperately hoping the Timberwolves are able to trade their pick to a team that wants to draft Derrick Williams. If that happens, perhaps teams desperate for Kanter will try to trade with Utah at #3, and I’m sure the Jazz would be willing to listen, but the odds of them getting a deal done aren’t all that strong. In a weak draft, you’re really going to need some pretty decent compensation for moving out of the top 3.

My perfect scenario is for the Timberwolves to either pick Williams or else trade the pick to someone who will, and then the Cavaliers take Enes Kanter with the #4 pick. It’s not so much that I’m sold on Kanter as it is that I think that not only is Valanciunas not a good prospect, but I also don’t believe he will be an NBA center. I’ve seen absolutely nothing in his videos that shows me the ability to play center in the NBA. He looks like a power forward and plays like a power forward. And if that’s the case, I don’t believe he will be near as good as JJ Hickson is, and therefore I just don’t get why the Cavs are so high on Valanciunas.

Obviously, the Cavaliers have spent some serious resources on scouting overseas players and they have seen more of Valanciunas than any of us have. But when I weigh what I have seen of Valanciunas with what I have read about him from other scouts and “draft experts”, I have my doubts.

To be sure, there are more than a few experts/scouts who like Valanciunas more than Kanter, but most of those seem to be the ones who are concerned about the lack of tape on Kanter. The majority of the scouting reports I’ve read also seem to see Valanciunas as a PF, and they almost all see him as a project whose success will ultimately depend on coaching and his ability to fill out his body.

My point with all of this is not to necessarily cut down Valanciunas, but more to express why I have such doubts as to the legitimacy of the Cavaliers preferring Valanciunas to Kanter. For much of the season I heard a lot of talk about the Cavaliers really wanting Kanter in this year’s draft. So did Valanciunas’ play in Euroleague last year change their minds? Or is it possible that the Cavaliers are leaking this information to discourage teams who want Kanter from trying to trade up above Cleveland?

Similarly to how I feel about NFL draft rumors, I rarely believe information that is leaked during draft season. Teams will always try to use misinformation to their benefit, and if you really want Enes Kanter at 4, and you believe that under status quo he will be there, then the best thing you can do is say you’re going to draft someone else so other teams won’t be as desperate to shake things up before you. These leaks are often transparent and I highly doubt most other teams buy into it, but it’s a practice that still occurs all the time.

So it’s wise to take any rumors with a grain of salt, but if Valanciunas is the guy the Cavaliers want, he will certainly be there at #4 no matter what. But if Enes Kanter is actually the guy, then we may have to hope for the Timberwolves to find a trading partner who will take Derrick Williams. It will be fascinating to see what the Timberwolves do with the #2 pick, that much is certain, and the results of their actions can have serious implications of the options Cleveland has at #4.

Cavaliers Should Be Watching What Minnesota Does With #2 Pick

Written By:  Andrew

waitingfornextyear.com