Options abound for the Cavaliers at #4 in the NBA Draft

What an exciting time to be a Cavaliers fan! In this draft especially, it was so crucial to get the top pick for the right to select Duke point guard Kyrie Irving, and that’s exactly what Nick Gilbert brought home for Cleveland. As many of the WFNY guys have expressed, I feel that Kyrie Irving is the clearcut number one selection. You take that selection and run to the podium with it. There are intriguing scenarios that operate on the belief that Derek Williams and either Brandon Knight or Kemba Walker will prove to be a more dominant duo than Irving and whoever the Cavaliers are able to pair him with at number four. In my opinion, those are interesting scenarios to entertain, but at the end of the day it’s Kyrie.

Another decision that makes selecting Kyrie at 1 easier is that I believe there are a pair of very intriguing centers, one of which will almost certainly be available at pick number four. While Jan Vesely, the crazy-athletic small forward from the Czech Republic, Bismack Biyombo, the Congolese big with all the tools to turn into a defensive stopper, and Kawhi Leonard, the San Diego State defender and scorer, all deserve consideration, when it’s said and done, I’m going with one of two guys. They are Jonas Valanciunas, the 6’11″ center from Lithuania and Enes Kanter, the 6’11″ center from Turkey and Kentucky Wildcat recruit.

When I look at these two draft prospects, watching film and gathering every opinion from around the web that I can, to me, it boils down to potential offense versus potential defensive greatness. Kanter is clearly the more skilled and gifted offensive big man, but I feel that Valanciunas is just as impressive with his ability to change the game on the defensive side of things.

When I look at footage of Valanciunas, this kid does not have the same sweet shooting stroke that Z had from the time we drafted him, but his body type is similar to when Z started out. What I like most about Valanciunas is his ability to defend the perimeter and his pick-and-roll ability on offense. He’s a guy that will help the pick and roll at both ends of the floor, which is huge in the NBA. On offense, his solid screen setting, athleticism to roll to the basket, skill to finish at the rim, and above-average free throw shooting all make him a threat in that regard. On defense, people have drawn comparisons to Joakim Noah, likely due to his willingness to hedge the pick and roll and his relative comfort for a big man in defending on the perimeter. Pairing him on offense with Kyrie Irving and on defense with Anderson Varejao could truly strengthen the Cavaliers on both ends right away.

Valanciunas also can rebound quite effectively. With his 7’6″ wingspan and proven ability to rebound in traffic, ripping the ball away from other players on several occasions that I saw, Jonas is not your typical soft European big. Other than that, I liked his ability to run the floor, his body language while playing, and the fact that he competed at the highest level in the European League, against skilled big men several years older than him.

Some of the drawbacks are that his arms, while long, are pencil-thin, as is his frame. He will need to add some bulk, especially if wants to be a NBA center, which I think should be his position. He is also foul prone, being called for three fouls per 15 minutes of action. I also want to see what he can do in terms of passing the ball. All of the plays I saw with Valanciunas were plays where he was finishing or attempting to finish the play. Can he be an effective passer in time? His post moves are also a concern, as most of what I saw was pretty unimaginative, with a half hook mixed in.

Then, of course, there is his contract, which has three more years on it with the Euro League team, BC Lietuvos Rytas. As Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com and Yahoo chronicles, there are still hurdles to clear regarding a buyout. However, if this dealbreaker-type issue is cleared up, he may be higher on some people draft boards, including the Cavaliers’ board, as our own Scott mentioned here on Thursday regarding the contract status being an issue and here this morning stating that if it’s cleared up, he would be higher on the draft board.

Then, of course, there is Enes Kanter, who some think is an even greater question mark, given his absence from organized basketball for over a year now. Kanter was ruled ineligible by the NCAA due to playing professional ball overseas, so his time at Kentucky was mostly spent learning the English language, practicing with the UK team, and getting his education.

The things I like about Kanter, again from what little I have seen, are his toughness, his propensity to play through contact in the post, his good hands, and his post move arsenal. Enes is a big body, one that won’t be pushed around in the post, and I believe he is a true center as well. Being able to score in the post with people hanging on you and hacking is important at the next level, because you’re not going to get every call, as Shaq and Dwight Howard would vouch for. Kanter has way more options in the post than Jonas V, and he has a methodical but effective mid-range jumper. I even caught footage of him from his one year of high school ball drilling multiple three pointers.

Another positive regarding Kanter was his impressive display at the 2010 Nike Hoops Summit in Portland. Kanter scored 34 points and grabbed 13 rebounds while coming off the bench for 21 minutes and dealing with a back injury. He did this against the likes of Ohio State Buckeye Jared Sullinger and Kentucky teammate Terrence Jones. Here are some reactions that I found gathered by Kentucky columnist John Clay. That’s where Kanter turned a lot of heads, and it’s one of the most recent glimpses we have of Kanter’s game.

In the “cons” portion of my take on Kanter, I would list his period of time being away from organized basketball as well as his speed and athleticism. Overall, I think Kanter is athletic enough to man the center position effectively, but his jumping ability is limited and his speed and agility, I would say, are average at best. I’m not sure Kanter can be an impact defender either, but his offense should more than make up for it.

In the end, though, I really admire Kanter coming out and going through all of the drills at the draft combine in Chicago this week. He said repeatedly his desire is to show his game and that he has absolutely nothing to hide. For a look at the interviews from the NBA Draft Combine, check out Glenn Moore’s footage over at Dugout Sport Show. He seems like a genuinely nice, high-character guy, one that I wouldn’t mind seeing in wine and gold.

What it will come down to for Chris Grant and the Cavalier coaching and scouting staffs will be the best fit long-term. Kanter is undeniably more ready to step in now and flash his offensive skills, and you will have to wait a little longer to see Valanciunas’s full impact. If defense, rebounding, and pick and roll offense are a greater need, Valanciunas is your man. If you’re looking for more of an offensive option and a tough, physical finisher in the post, then Kanter should be the selection. I feel that the Cavaliers’ decision may in part be made by Minnesota (or a trade partner) and Utah ahead of them, and only one of these two will be there at number four. Right now, I’m leaning a little bit toward Valanciunas, but I would not be disappointed at all with Kanter.

As always, at WFNY, we will have more in the coming weeks regarding the NBA Draft, the selection at number four, and the exciting month ahead for Cavalier fans.

Options abound for the Cavaliers at #4 in the NBA Draft
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Kentucky Wildcats Basketball: How Far Can This Team Go?

At the beginning of this year, when Enes Kanter was presumed to be eligible at some point for the Kentucky Wildcats this season, fans had very high hopes -- even Final Four hopes -- for this team, which did not seem all that unreasonable.  Add great shooting, great passing, and great talent to a major force in the paint and the sum often comes up to NCAA championship contender.

But something happened on the way to the Final Four for Kentucky, and that something was the NCAA declaration that Enes Kanter is not, nor will ever be, eligible to play basketball for an NCAA institution, except for an intramural team.  When the appeals were exhausted, so were UK fans' patience.  But in the end, that particular Final Four contender was a dream that will never be realized.

The fear, though, that Kentucky might not have enough of a post presence to compete has been dispelled by the excellent rebounding and solid interior play of Josh Harrellson and Terrence Jones.  So far, everyone on this team has been what they were supposed to be this season with the possible exception of Darius Miller.  As a junior, many expected Miller to be much more of an impact player than he has been, although he has shown some signs of becoming that player in the last two games.  But aside from that and the revelation that is Harrellson, there have been no real surprises on this Kentucky team save for one other very important one -- a 3-6 road record (I'm counting the Portland Pilots in the Rose Garden as a road game).

We have already examined in detail what the statistics say, and they tell a reasonably convincing story that Kentucky has lost on the road not because they shoot poorly, or because their offense is substantially worse, but because for whatever reason, the Wildcats have not been able to stop opponents in their own gym.  Cases in point:  Mississippi Rebels, a season 35% 3-point shooting team, racks up 8-17 for 46% against UK, their fourth-best output of the season, and all the other teams they shot better against were terrible.  Florida Gators, a 66% free throw shooting team makes 18-22 versus Kentucky (82%), their second-best percentage all year.  Vanderbilt Commodores, 11-20 from 3 for 55% against UK, their best showing of the year, to go along with 20-23 from the line, their second best percentage this year.

The bottom line is, and has been, that UK has struggled with hot opponents on the road.  SEC opponents in particular have made 3-point shots at a very high percentage, as well as an uncharacteristically high percentage of free throws.  In other words, Kentucky's opponents have simply played some of their best basketball against the Wildcats, and even though Kentucky played well in every one of those games, they didn't play quite well enough.

What a coach sees, though is that his defense is not performing on the road.  You know you aren't going to get the benefit of a friendly whistle in most SEC road games, and so you have to make up for it by forcing bad shots.  But when you do that and the team makes them, it's tough to take.

Kentucky will now travel to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks in an attempt to win their third SEC game in a row and first road win in over a month.  Of course, Kentucky needs this to continue their march toward a top four seed, and another road setback, particularly to the low-RPI Hawgs, would do great violence to that hope.  Joe Lunardi of ESPN currently has Kentucky a 5-seed, but more than one more loss before the SEC tournament could easily put the 'Cats closer to a 6 or 7 than a 5, although that may not be a bad thing considering the 6 doesn't face the 1 until the regional final.  A 5 gets the 1 seed in the Sweet Sixteen.

So how far can Kentucky go?  Here is a brief SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis:

Strengths:

1. 3-point shooting.  Great perimeter shooting is always a huge advantage in the NCAA tournament.  Kentucky is over 40% on the year and almost 40% in conference, good enough for 10th in the land and 3rd in the SEC.
2. Good free throw shooting.  Kentucky is now up to 71% overall, 73% in conference.  That's solid.
3. Guard play.  Kentucky's guards are really skilled and don't turn the ball over.  The Wildcats are currently the 10th best ballhandling team in the nation.  They can beat you off the bounce, at the rim, and just about everywhere else.
4. Terrence Jones.  Terrence Jones is just a man-child that is close to getting the "beast" classification hung on him.
5. A shut-down defender in DeAndre Liggins.

Weaknesses:

1. Depth.  Seven deep is barely deep enough in the NCAA tournament, but currently, UK is getting very few minutes from the seventh man.
2. Rebounding.  Despite a good overall effort from Harrellson and Jones, Kentucky is only 99th nationally and 9th in the SEC in OR%
3. 3pt shooting defense.  The stats don't lie.  Kentucky is currently allowing 35.5% 3-point shooting in conference games, and that's 9th in the league.  Yes, some is due to otherworldly percentages as I mentioned above from a few foes, but it has to be considered a weakness.
4. Size.  Even with Harrellson and Jones in the game, Kentucky is not a big team inside.
5. Post play.  Unlike last year, Kentucky cannot pound the ball into the paint at will, and others can.

Opportunities:

1. Win out, especially considering UK would have to beat 2 current top 25 teams to do it,  and Kentucky has a chance at a 3 seed, which is a good place to be if you can't be a 1 or 2.
2. Tournament setup.  A middle seed this year might not be a bad place to play in the tournament.  Kentucky has easily handled teams that will wind up in this range all year.
3. Defensive improvement.  If Kentucky improves as little as 5% in defensive efficiency, it will be a very dangerous team come tournament time.
4. Neutral court games.  Kentucky has played very well versus opponents on neutral courts.

Threats:

1. Injury.  This Kentucky team is thin, and every player is needed for it to succeed.  An injury to any one of the top six players is a major threat to this team's success.
2. Continued overachievement by opponents.  We have run into several buzz saws, but that might not be the last of them.
3. A bad loss.  Kentucky's worst loss so far was to Ole Miss on the road, but a bad loss to a weak team (either Arkansas or an early SEC tournament round) could really hurt this team's NCAA seed.
4. Two road losses.  If Kentucky loses its remaining two road games, a top four seed will not happen

It is pretty optimistic, at this point, to think Kentucky might get as far as the Elite Eight, but there is plenty of upside left in this Wildcat team, particularly defensively.  If the 'Cats can up the defensive part of their effort without sacrificing much offense, there is really no telling how far they can go, although a lot will depend on the matchups they draw in the tournament. 

Luck is always a factor in any one-and-out tournament.  Kentucky is due for a little of that.

Kentucky Wildcats Basketball: How Far Can This Team Go?

by Glenn Logan 

aseaofblue.com

It Ain't Over Till It's Over

Sports scenarios many times can be applied to life in general.

Many of us have been told by our elders as we've grown up that life is never as bad as it seems at times nor is it ever as good as it appears at times either. For most of our lives it falls in the middle.

You can apply those remarks to the present day situation of the Kentucky Wildcats basketball season. To add a more sports oriented phrase to the Cats situation is best described by that famous remark that Yogi Berra, the Yankee catcher, uttered one day in the Yankees clubhouse when his revered Yankees were in a bad losing streak and he told a New York sports reporter " It ain't over till it's over."

I think that can be applied directly to this UK basketball team.

While having lost four games in the first half of the 16 game conference schedule isn't a trait most UK teams have displayed this ship can still be righted for a solid finish.

To retrace back to the beginning of the season most realistic prognosticators thought this team would lose anywhere from 3 to 6 SEC games with most all of them coming on the road. The losses at Georgia and Florida weren't that alarming to me and the one at Alabama is beginning to look like no fluke either. The Ole Miss loss is the one that's a head scratcher. Everyone knew this three week seven-game stretch with five games on the road would be the toughest of the season and it has played out to be just that.

The calvary nor Enes Kanter is not on the horizon either, as many hoped would happen when conference play began. At this point of the season the Cats are what we thought they would be back in November.

In order to get back on track UK must run the table at home for the remainder of the conference schedule and even though it's glaringly apparent this team is limited in quantity it does have six quality players, yes I said Six. Three players (Miller, Liggins, and Harrellson) have been ask to perform at a more productive and consistent level than before. It says here the consistency from those three will be better in the second half of conference play because the majority of the games will be played in the friendly confines of Rupp Arena the next three weeks. The other three of the Super Six (Knight, Jones, and Lamb) are all big time division one players and they're no longer freshman at this point in the season.

What would help this season ending comeback scenario tremendously would be for the Cats to steal a win or two on the road this second half. The opportunities for that will come at Vanderbilt, Arkansas, and Tennessee. My guess is the best opportunities will be at Arkansas and Tennessee, but make no mistake the Cats must run the table at home in order to right the ship for a decent run in the NCAA's March Madness.

One thing many people don't understand is that UK is as battle tested as any team in college basketball when postseason play begins each year because they have taken every teams best hit on their schedule all season long. It toughens them up. Then add to that the fact that all postseason play is at a neutral site where UK always has a home court advantage thanks to the Big Blue Nation and you can vision a much better finish to the season.

I'll step out on the limb and project this team to finish off the second half in more impressive fashion. I'll say the finish line record going into the SEC Tournament will look something like 10-6 or 11-5 with a championship game appearance in the Georgia Dome and a Sweet 16 appearance in the Big Dance.

The only fly in the ointment is that any injury to any of those terrific three of Knight, Jones, and Lamb could change the whole picture. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
We just failed to factor in the impact of the youth in late game situations.

It Ain't Over Till It's Over
By Ira D. Combs Syndicated Columnist
Tri State Sports Media Service Inc.
kentuckysportsnetwork.com